1. If CGT were increased to 20%, property owners would be better off putting all properties in a company where owners would just pay a total of 18% tax (12% VAT and 6% Creditable Withholding Tax [CWT]–both of which are deducted from the VAT-exclusive price, a lower base). Moreover, VAT and CWT can be offset by VAT-input and expenses. These give property owners the reason to put assets under a corporation.
2. In lieu of the previous insight, people would be setting up companies to put their properties in. Before, it took 2-3 months to setup a company; however SEC recently moved its office to Manila and I would assume this would make things slower as they adjust to the new office–4-6 months in my assumption. This would mean less secondary market sales in the following six months.
3. Given that sellers would get less proceeds (approximately 14% less from what they originally expected before the reform), they will make up for the decrease in proceeds by increasing the selling price. In effect, this would slow secondary market sales as less buyers can afford the higher prices. This would definitely greatly affect sales of secondary market properties in areas that have seen recent increase in zonal values (i.e. Makati).
4. Finally, what better way to avoid getting taxed by 14% more than by selling your property before the tax reform is implemented? It would be a natural decision for property owners to liquidate assets before the tax reform especially because, I believe, it would take a few years to recoup the expected loss (in case they choose to stick with their selling prices) if they had not sold their properties before. Prices in the Metro are already at their historical peaks (QC condo at Php145,000/sqm, Makati condos at Php330,000/sqm). It’s hard to imagine that the same amount of people would be willing to buy if prices increased even higher.
Unlikely but possible. It is unlikely that legislators would pass this part of the reform (especially because I believe a lot of them own a significant amount of real estate). They would get affected in the process. However, history has proven that even the remote things may happen (minority winning the elections). Philippine politics is one of those uncertain things.
Price decline in the near future. We can’t undermine the fact that people will anticipate the possibility and act faster than the market. General prices would decline in the near future, especially in areas that have seen significant increases in value in recent years because they would want to take profit.
Invest in developing areas. With this amount of uncertainty, I would suggest investors to focus or divert to their investments to developing areas which present higher capital appreciation potential where prices remain low and would be affected dramatically lesser since the tax bases are lower. Examples of which are Cavite and Nuvali.
Agree? Disagree? Would love to hear your thoughts. Email me at email@example.com